分类:默认分类
中国社会科学院金融研究所发布的2016年二季度上市公司景气指数小幅回升,已经接近“平稳”区间。预示经济增速下行所带来的市场担忧已有所减轻,国家“稳增长”政策初见成效。
二季度上市公司综合景气指数为98.92,与一季度基本持平,虽然仍然处于“下行”区间,但已非常接近“平稳”区间的下限(99.00)。但是,先行景气指数从上一季度的97.33下降到97.25,预示着三季度上市公司景气度可能会轻微回落。分行业看,化工等行业景气度环比上升幅度较大,而计算机和汽车等行业景气度环比下降较为显著。
据“上市公司景气指数”课题组负责人张跃文研究员介绍,导致上市公司景气度上升的主要原因是,一方面宏观经济走势趋稳,市场消费需求增长较快,国家稳增长政策带来的投资增加部分弥补了民间投资缺口,上市公司营业收入增长明显;另一方面是受铁矿石、原油、铜等大宗商品价格持续走低等等因素影响,上市公司生产成本有所下降,营业利润大幅提高,而且随着经营环境改善,上市公司投资活动增加,资产规模有所扩大。下半年的景气状况总体向好,但不确定性依然存在。主要原因在于宏观经济稳增长基础仍然脆弱,市场信心尚未完全恢复,上市公司三季度的景气状况仍有可能出现反复。
“上市公司景气指数系列”是中国社会科学院金融研究所开发的、旨在监测我国上市公司景气状况的公益性指数系列。该指数系列以上市公司公开信息为基础,采用规范方法编制而成,为证券市场投资者迅速了解上市公司基本面信息提供了便利。
附:上市公司景气指数历史数据
季度 | 综合 指数 | 先行 指数 | 一致 指数 | 行业指数 | |||||
化工 | 机械设备 | 计算机 | 汽车 | 商贸 | 医药 | ||||
2004.1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2004.2 | 99.56 | 98.58 | 100.21 | 100.08 | 100.21 | 100.09 | 99.72 | 99.65 | 99.51 |
2004.3 | 99.10 | 98.14 | 99.74 | 99.82 | 99.28 | 99.30 | 99.50 | 99.53 | 99.29 |
2004.4 | 98.11 | 96.67 | 99.08 | 99.94 | 99.15 | 98.54 | 99.17 | 99.54 | 99.03 |
2005.1 | 98.04 | 97.11 | 98.65 | 98.91 | 98.11 | 98.32 | 98.62 | 99.38 | 98.74 |
2005.2 | 98.35 | 97.15 | 99.15 | 99.33 | 98.46 | 99.01 | 99.24 | 99.59 | 99.37 |
2005.3 | 98.43 | 97.09 | 99.32 | 99.64 | 98.42 | 98.12 | 99.16 | 99.40 | 99.02 |
2005.4 | 98.40 | 97.18 | 99.21 | 98.75 | 98.67 | 98.54 | 99.09 | 99.20 | 98.18 |
2006.1 | 98.48 | 97.23 | 99.32 | 98.61 | 98.31 | 99.70 | 99.33 | 99.08 | 98.51 |
2006.2 | 99.21 | 97.95 | 100.04 | 99.39 | 99.13 | 98.97 | 99.81 | 99.71 | 98.75 |
2006.3 | 99.49 | 98.51 | 100.15 | 99.91 | 98.92 | 99.64 | 99.07 | 99.91 | 98.86 |
2006.4 | 99.52 | 97.93 | 100.57 | 99.54 | 99.79 | 99.18 | 99.83 | 99.47 | 99.09 |
2007.1 | 98.92 | 97.61 | 99.80 | 99.15 | 98.91 | 98.69 | 99.34 | 99.24 | 99.15 |
2007.2 | 99.16 | 97.57 | 100.22 | 99.61 | 99.13 | 98.99 | 99.49 | 99.56 | 99.67 |
2007.3 | 99.22 | 97.56 | 100.33 | 99.43 | 99.27 | 98.86 | 99.78 | 99.73 | 99.53 |
2007.4 | 99.13 | 97.53 | 100.19 | 99.78 | 99.33 | 99.45 | 99.22 | 100.44 | 99.15 |
2008.1 | 98.51 | 96.88 | 99.60 | 98.76 | 98.77 | 98.65 | 98.99 | 99.18 | 99.01 |
2008.2 | 98.39 | 96.36 | 99.74 | 98.72 | 98.76 | 98.44 | 98.86 | 98.76 | 99.74 |
2008.3 | 97.88 | 96.18 | 99.02 | 98.54 | 98.16 | 97.85 | 98.47 | 98.75 | 98.72 |
2008.4 | 96.81 | 95.93 | 97.39 | 97.47 | 97.90 | 98.08 | 97.39 | 98.20 | 98.89 |
2009.1 | 97.23 | 97.21 | 97.24 | 98.31 | 98.17 | 97.73 | 98.32 | 98.40 | 98.90 |
2009.2 | 98.37 | 98.56 | 98.24 | 99.13 | 99.06 | 98.57 | 99.25 | 99.26 | 99.41 |
2009.3 | 98.86 | 98.69 | 98.97 | 98.81 | 99.61 | 98.79 | 99.49 | 100.01 | 100.63 |
2009.4 | 99.69 | 98.78 | 100.29 | 100.03 | 99.82 | 99.64 | 100.30 | 100.65 | 101.04 |
2010.1 | 100.08 | 98.54 | 101.11 | 100.04 | 100.35 | 99.43 | 100.98 | 101.34 | 100.44 |
2010.2 | 99.73 | 97.94 | 100.92 | 100.16 | 99.82 | 100.05 | 100.09 | 100.89 | 100.48 |
2010.3 | 99.40 | 97.92 | 100.39 | 99.97 | 99.34 | 99.45 | 99.44 | 100.33 | 100.20 |
2010.4 | 98.98 | 97.08 | 100.26 | 99.59 | 99.20 | 99.63 | 99.29 | 100.32 | 100.50 |
2011.1 | 99.24 | 98.55 | 99.71 | 99.47 | 99.09 | 98.62 | 99.31 | 100.10 | 99.85 |
2011.2 | 99.27 | 98.12 | 100.03 | 99.18 | 99.51 | 98.82 | 99.21 | 100.51 | 99.64 |
2011.3 | 98.64 | 96.87 | 99.82 | 100.41 | 98.77 | 98.75 | 99.18 | 100.74 | 99.39 |
2011.4 | 98.26 | 96.97 | 99.12 | 98.53 | 98.80 | 98.92 | 99.17 | 99.34 | 99.31 |
2012.1 | 97.65 | 96.60 | 98.35 | 98.44 | 97.96 | 97.78 | 99.10 | 98.71 | 99.01 |
2012.2 | 97.67 | 96.39 | 98.52 | 98.34 | 98.22 | 97.81 | 99.24 | 98.10 | 99.26 |
2012.3 | 97.73 | 96.67 | 98.44 | 98.47 | 98.07 | 97.86 | 98.98 | 98.74 | 99.18 |
2012.4 | 97.97 | 96.48 | 98.96 | 98.66 | 98.15 | 98.36 | 99.36 | 99.54 | 99.94 |
2013.1 | 98.81 | 98.23 | 99.19 | 98.88 | 98.12 | 98.17 | 99.59 | 99.24 | 99.30 |
2013.2 | 98.62 | 97.18 | 99.58 | 98.90 | 98.37 | 98.34 | 99.83 | 100.09 | 99.59 |
2013.3 | 99.03 | 97.25 | 100.21 | 99.04 | 98.43 | 98.83 | 99.53 | 99.59 | 99.48 |
2013.4 | 98.98 | 97.16 | 100.19 | 99.05 | 98.45 | 99.24 | 100.20 | 98.71 | 99.82 |
2014.1 | 97.89 | 96.75 | 98.65 | 98.79 | 98.13 | 98.11 | 97.52 | 99.02 | 99.32 |
2014.2 | 98.71 | 97.38 | 99.60 | 98.56 | 97.99 | 98.42 | 99.02 | 98.86 | 99.83 |
2014.3 | 98.35 | 96.76 | 99.42 | 98.82 | 97.53 | 98.01 | 98.50 | 99.25 | 99.45 |
2014.4 | 97.94 | 96.50 | 98.90 | 97.75 | 97.84 | 98.09 | 99.07 | 98.58 | 99.05 |
2015.1 | 97.53 | 96.53 | 98.20 | 98.03 | 97.79 | 97.56 | 98.80 | 98.79 | 98.70 |
2015.2 | 98.20 | 97.05 | 98.96 | 98.17 | 97.67 | 98.23 | 98.85 | 98.48 | 98.56 |
2015.3 | 98.05 | 97.06 | 98.70 | 98.10 | 97.50 | 98.06 | 98.75 | 98.48 | 98.54 |
2015.4 | 98.36 | 96.47 | 99.62 | 98.48 | 97.63 | 98.56 | 99.58 | 99.10 | 98.77 |
2016.1 | 98.91 | 97.33 | 99.96 | 98.89 | 98.09 | 98.94 | 99.50 | 98.82 | 98.80 |
2016.2 | 98.92 | 97.25 | 100.03 | 99.13 | 98.01 | 98.47 | 98.79 | 98.78 | 98.74 |
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